Out On The Edge

[carney2]

I'm not talking about the edge of the cliff or on a ledge 20 stories up. If that were the case it would be in past tense. As a Pirates fan I would have jumped years and years ago. I'm talking about the edge. You know, as in the edge of hope, the edge of credulity, the edge of reason, or even the edge, as in about to jump ship. This off season may have done it for me.

After a year in which my Buccos were in contention at and after the All-Star break and some seemingly meaningful baseball was played on the North Side, we get...what? A Clint Barmes, a Nate McLouth, an MRI waiting to happen in Erik Bedard, a...well, you get my point. Looking at the big picture here we see that the best management team in baseball is quite content to go into 2012 with more or less the same level of performance that we saw in August and September of 2011. They are counting on maturity and skills improvement, I guess. The talent count hasn't been changed much at all.

Buried in all of this are the statements that baseball is a business and Bob Nutting is a businessman. Both are true. What seems to left out of the equation is the fact that ownership of a major league professional sports franchise carries with it another implication - it's something of a public trust. The community has a stake in this that goes well beyond being a mere ticket buying customer. Ownership has an obligation to give an honest effort. That, in my opinion, did not happen in this off season. Should management have thrown $214 million at a Prince Fielder? God no. Should they have flopped around like a beached fish a la the Florida Marlins, throwing money, or threatening to throw money, here, there and everywhere in the hopes that something might happen? No again. Should they have shown good faith and made an honest effort to upgrade this rag tag bunch of perpetual losers? Absolutely. Did they? Absolutely not.

I've heard all the arguments. Things like the future is not now. The Pirates have spent money on the draft and in the international market. Talent is on the way. To some extent I agree. That "talent," in my opinion, is a bit too heavily invested in high risk pitching, but it's there. Then there's the "we'll spend when the time is right" argument. This is where I move to the edge. This off season may have convinced me that current management is somehow incapable of making moves and will not step to the plate, even when the time is right. It's not that they don't care, it's as if they're glass half empty type guys who will always be capable of finding a reason to say no.

[airleg1]

Carney, I wholeheartedly agree. I understand that the kids will be coming in soon and the future is bright. The club was on the verge of breaking .500 last year and was rewarded with more revenue. They should have taken that extra revenue and dropped it into the pot to be competitive (not great) this year but they didnt. Because of last years first half performance I expected a halfhearted push but didnt receive it..

I guess that we have to wait for the kids to come up from the Minors before they try; but I ask what happens when one or two of the hopefulls dont pan out and we have a gaping hole or two that go unfilled? Will the Organization tell us that they have some kids coming up thru the system?

[jleisele58]

personally, ive seen enough good from this management team, that i could go a number of years before even thinking about jumping ship. I may be a little biased though as i have not tried to jump ship at all yet. I still love baseball, i still love the pirates. There is more than enough people to take the blame for the last 20 years where i dont have to lump it all with anyone who is unfortunate enough to have to stand infront of the cross-hairs for the week.

[emjayinTN]

Carney2: I too would have liked to see the Pirates try to do more, especially in pursuit of a guy like Anthony Rizzo, but they have made some solid moves that will bring improvement in 2012.

First, be strong up the middle. The Pirates went into the off-season with Andrew McCutchen in CF and Neil Walker at 2B. I think the additions of Clint Barmes and Rod Barajas will solidify the middle of the D and add quite a bit in the batting order. We had mediocre results from Ronny Cedeno at SS and even less from Snyder (injuries) and Doumit (injuries and no D) behind the plate - yes, I think we are much better going into ST than we were in July of last year. The other major difference is that we will not have Paul Maholm in the Rotation. Dropping those 4 guys means $30 mil that does not have to be spent on guys that were not delivering. I still have faith in Chase d'Arnaud and I think he will benefit having a role model like Barmes. We have more and better pitching than I can remember since the early 90's. I do not know if Bedard is the guy, because I would rather roll the dice with Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, or Tony Watson - yes, he was a very capable and reliable SP for Nebraska and through the minors.

The front office has done a lot in the past 4 years, but my biggest disappointment is the failure to get McCutchen signed so far this off-season. Right behind that is the lack of progress in finding a young 1B to bring along. I may be mistaken about whether we have one such player in the minors, but nobody who will be ready in 2012. And the lack of information shared with the public is mind boggling.

[Kipper]

The front office has done a lot in the past 4 years, but my biggest disappointment is the failure to get McCutchen signed so far this off-season. Right behind that is the lack of progress in finding a young 1B to bring along. I may be mistaken about whether we have one such player in the minors, but nobody who will be ready in 2012. And the lack of information shared with the public is mind boggling.

There was a complete lack of 1B to start off with in Free Agency so it's not like we had a big pool to choose from. it was Prince, Albert and then a bunch of overpaid guys that didn't present much at all if any upgrade. Like the Rolling Stones sang "you can't always get what you want". We wanted to resign Derrek Lee and he wouldn't do it and we offered him more than he was probably worth considering that Derrek Lee is like adam LaRoche, he stinks at the start of a season and turns it on later.

It's been said here plenty and elsewhere (if you don't read 3rd rate writers like Smizik) that McCutchen isn't either willing to include Free Agent years in a long term extension or wants to wait to improve his value. either way the most that's been heard about negotiations with Cutch has pointed towards mccutchen being unwilling to negotiate. it takes 2 to negotiate. You can't blame management too much for that.

I'd have like to have seen a 1B upgrade but despite people complaining what seems like weekly about not upgrading those holes, nobody ever offers a realistic option or more that we should've gone after.

We offered Derrek Lee more than he was worth and he didn't take it. Carlos Lee was going to have to be greatly overpaid what he is worth even to us to come here over Tampa Bay. McGehee with Jones could get the job done well enough until a better solution comes. That's what stop gap's are. Plenty of teams have them. There's no such thing as a perfect roster, especially for a small market team.

The strength of the Pirates isn't going to be power or even producing runs but pitching and defense and we look good there. If our own players like McCutchen and Pedro step up their games and Barmes and Barajas provide better results than McKenry and Cedeno while we get anything better at 1st than Lyle Overbay.... we should be better this year

[Shaker100]

My question is and will be over the next few years: Are the Pirates willing to spend? As core player contracts move through their arb years, salaries will escalate. In the case of 'Cutch his increase will be exponential. The team does not seem willing to operate in the red in any given year. A larger free agent contract like Edwin Jackson , even though his price has dropped would move the projected bottom line to a break even point. I'm seriously doubting Bob Nutting will allocate funds to make the necessary moves to fill holes when this team is on the verge of contention. Kip I think even you would have your doubts the team will step up when the time is right.

[jleisele58]

i dont think the pirates are going to spend, and i dont think its automatically a bad thing. I do believe they will take on 1 or 2, maybe even 3, core player half decent money contracts, if players are willing. IE Cutch, Alvarez, and a pitcher, like Taillion is supposed to be. But for the most part i see a 5-6 year revolving door, and an annual payroll of 60M give or take. The main idea is to trade a "star" for a near sure thing prospect, and a handful of others and see what sticks. Players move up, players play well, players get moved and the cycle repeats. Most of your players will be paid on rookie or arbitration contracts, and when the time comes, maybe the pirates get them signed for the purpose of sweetening a trade, or maybe not. Point is to keep talent coming in and going out on a consistent basis.

[emjayinTN]

i dont think the pirates are going to spend, and i dont think its automatically a bad thing. I do believe they will take on 1 or 2, maybe even 3, core player half decent money contracts, if players are willing. IE Cutch, Alvarez, and a pitcher, like Taillion is supposed to be. But for the most part i see a 5-6 year revolving door, and an annual payroll of 60M give or take. The main idea is to trade a "star" for a near sure thing prospect, and a handful of others and see what sticks. Players move up, players play well, players get moved and the cycle repeats. Most of your players will be paid on rookie or arbitration contracts, and when the time comes, maybe the pirates get them signed for the purpose of sweetening a trade, or maybe not. Point is to keep talent coming in and going out on a consistent basis.

I sure hope the Pirates did not waste all of this past 4 years drafting and signing players to have a revolving door type of mentality. If we stay at or around $60 mil, then we are not trying to make the playoffs. It will take about a $60 mil average over the next 3 years to achieve and maintain a .500+ team. From there it will possibly take another $20 mil up to $80 mil per year to try to make the playoffs. As this happens, our draft status will get from a Top 3 pick to a #20 or beyond pick. Therefore, unless we spend big on the International Market, we will cease bringing in top prospects in the numbers we have been.

How do we do this? The fan support must be better than it has been. We gained 300,000 in attendance in 2011 and we need to continue on that pace for at least 2 more years - each 100,000 fan increase means about $3.5 mil in Revenue to the club. So, $10.5 from 2011, and if they keep that pace they can generate about $30+ mil. They have been getting $30 to $40 mil a year in Revenue Sharing, but that will decrease as they get better and generate more revenue on their own. Right now, they need to start to sign the "keepers" and that starts with Andrew McCutchen. I know, we are hearing that it is the Andrew camp that does not want to give up his first two free agent years, and it is not our fault as a team if he will not negotiate. My take is that if we have allowed this kid to get to the point where he will not play ball with us, we have the wrong person doing the negotiations. How do other teams sign their young talent?

I think it is somewhere in between what the Pirates have offered and what the McCutchen camp will accept - true, we are not at the point of no return, but IMO, we are getting **** close. This kid is collecting national accolades after a year where we considered it could have been better. If we think he has peaked after a year where the experts on MLB pick him as the 3rd Best CF in the game today right after Kemp and Ellsbury and right ahead of Granderson, then we have the wrong people at the controls. This kid could be the best we have processed through our system in the last 10 years, and probably for the next 10 years running. We see just how easy it is to find a front runner at any position, and when we have one, we do not know what to do with it. We need a Closer! Somebody who can make it happen so that we can start to build a winner around this kid!

[Kipper]

I sure hope the Pirates did not waste all of this past 4 years drafting and signing players to have a revolving door type of mentality. If we stay at or around $60 mil, then we are not trying to make the playoffs. It will take about a $60 mil average over the next 3 years to achieve and maintain a .500+ team. From there it will possibly take another $20 mil up to $80 mil per year to try to make the playoffs. As this happens, our draft status will get from a Top 3 pick to a #20 or beyond pick. Therefore, unless we spend big on the International Market, we will cease bringing in top prospects in the numbers we have been.

How do we do this? The fan support must be better than it has been. We gained 300,000 in attendance in 2011 and we need to continue on that pace for at least 2 more years - each 100,000 fan increase means about $3.5 mil in Revenue to the club. So, $10.5 from 2011, and if they keep that pace they can generate about $30+ mil. They have been getting $30 to $40 mil a year in Revenue Sharing, but that will decrease as they get better and generate more revenue on their own. Right now, they need to start to sign the "keepers" and that starts with Andrew McCutchen. I know, we are hearing that it is the Andrew camp that does not want to give up his first two free agent years, and it is not our fault as a team if he will not negotiate. My take is that if we have allowed this kid to get to the point where he will not play ball with us, we have the wrong person doing the negotiations. How do other teams sign their young talent?

I think it is somewhere in between what the Pirates have offered and what the McCutchen camp will accept - true, we are not at the point of no return, but IMO, we are getting **** close. This kid is collecting national accolades after a year where we considered it could have been better. If we think he has peaked after a year where the experts on MLB pick him as the 3rd Best CF in the game today right after Kemp and Ellsbury and right ahead of Granderson, then we have the wrong people at the controls. This kid could be the best we have processed through our system in the last 10 years, and probably for the next 10 years running. We see just how easy it is to find a front runner at any position, and when we have one, we do not know what to do with it. We need a Closer! Somebody who can make it happen so that we can start to build a winner around this kid!

We'll never see an $80 million payroll. It just won't happen. Don't blame Pittsburgh , the fans, the ownership, blame MLB.

With ticket prices remaining in the bottom 1/4 of the league and our concession prices remaining where they are and if we are able to hit our maximum seasonal output on a non new stadium inauguration year, you're talking about $65 million maybe up to $70 if i can remember my past calculations on this topic. Don't forget that "revenue" goes towards a ****load of other things that aren't included in payroll. There's so many other costs that revenue has to cover.

How are you getting 100K fans would equal $3.5 million? The Pirates average ticket price is around the $15-17 mark. you're talking about $1.6 million. To get to that $80 million mark we'd have to increase tickets and then draw in the 3 million per year category like Milwaukee. We've never come close to 3 million per year

We have to come to the realization that the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to always have a revolving door. You won't get no career players with the Pirates and when they get into their FA years and get past that first contract extension... they're traded. The goal however is to make sure that when "X" player is traded, his spot is ready to be taken over by the next wave of players. Ths is really nothing different than what the Steelers "had" done with regards to their players. Jason Gildon gets ready to touch Free Agency and is nearing or into his 30's, he's let go and Joey Porter is ready to take, same thing happens with Porter and there's James Harrison etc...

Draft IS and ALWAYS will be the most important facet of the Pittsburgh Pirates. It wil determine their future and their lineups in almost every way and it's going to be the one and only true tool that the Pirates have in order to compete. Unfortunately, everyone else has that tool as well and the ****ty new CBA made it more difficult for the Pirates to use this tool to their advantage.

[Kipper]

My question is and will be over the next few years: Are the Pirates willing to spend? As core player contracts move through their arb years, salaries will escalate. In the case of 'Cutch his increase will be exponential. The team does not seem willing to operate in the red in any given year. A larger free agent contract like Edwin Jackson , even though his price has dropped would move the projected bottom line to a break even point. I'm seriously doubting Bob Nutting will allocate funds to make the necessary moves to fill holes when this team is on the verge of contention. Kip I think even you would have your doubts the team will step up when the time is right.

You can't spend what you don't have.

This team can't operate in the "red". It can't. Small market teams that operate in the red get in deep ****. The last time we operated in the "red", MLB smacked us because our debt ratio was worse than their limits and they made the Pirates dump... and there went Aramis Ramirez. When you operate with money you don't have you end up like the Pittsburgh Penguins did in the 1990's. Bankrupt. The Pirates no doubt have financial guys that tell them what their limits are and this is based on realistic attendance results, a maximum for what they could do with ticket prices, revenue sharing etc... The Pirates won't operate financially beyond those maximums and they shouldn't, just like you and me shouldn't operate with mounting debt. What happens when you get into debt? You start cutting back on things to pay off the bills. In baseball that translates to dumping payroll.

The Pirates are always going to trade players that some aren't going to want to let go off. They have to, this is the unfair, ****ty model for which MLB has forced small market teams like the Pirates to operate in. It's not fair to the Pirates and it sure as hell isn't fair to us, the fans who are treated like 3rd rate people in Bud Selig's world as he caters to those that happen to live in larger regions. The Pirates will be able to sign and extend a nice number of players through their FA years, but there will come a time, hopefully when we might have too many good players and we need to trade some because it would take the Yankees payroll to house them all, like Tampa Bay has done. Look at what Tampa Bay has done too. They've trade some good key parts of their teams and kept winning. They've stocked their minor league system with good draft picks and also good prospects they acquired in trades to step up and fill the holes of those they're replacing. That's what the Pirates are going to have to do.

There's a reason why payroll isn't at it's max, it's because they'd like to sign a guy like McCutchen which would potentially push it much closer there. Sign a guy like Jackson to a bloated contract like it would take where we'd get nowhere near the value in return and you sign Cutch, now you are operating in the red possibly. I've never had any doubts that the Pirates would keep their word, they've yet to NOT keep their word since Bob Nutting took over as majority Owner. They said they'd draft better and they have. They said that they would do this and that with a plan and they have. They said they would spend on the draft and always take the BPA regardless of money and they have. They said they would improve Internationally and they have. They said that wen they were ready to compete and needed to, they would trade for help at the Trade Deadline and they did that along with acquire $$$$$ on contracts. I trust that they will keep their word when it comes to signing their players but I also understand that realistically they cannot keep everyone and there is a budget for which they have to operate in

[exNCite]

As this happens, our draft status will get from a Top 3 pick to a #20 or beyond pick. Therefore, unless we spend big on the International Market, we will cease bringing in top prospects in the numbers we have been.

Just because you're constantly picking in the 1-5 range doesn't cast in stone that the player will be a major leaguer, let alone a star major leaguer. There are tons of examples oh high picks not cutting it (we have numerous examples in our system alone) as well as lower picks who have gone on to have great careers. Pujols is probably the best example of that.

So again, it's not SIMPLY SPENDING MONEY. It's building an entire organization from the bottom up. Coaching, scouting, drafting, evaluating. If those things become productive, the FA thing will automatically fall into place.

[Kipper]

Just because you're constantly picking in the 1-5 range doesn't cast in stone that the player will be a major leaguer, let alone a star major leaguer. There are tons of examples oh high picks not cutting it (we have numerous examples in our system alone) as well as lower picks who have gone on to have great careers. Pujols is probably the best example of that.

So again, it's not SIMPLY SPENDING MONEY. It's building an entire organization from the bottom up. Coaching, scouting, drafting, evaluating. If those things become productive, the FA thing will automatically fall into place.

Ceertainly true. There's a ton of players not drafted in the 1st round that become good players.

Using a stat like WAR just for "value" purposes since I'm not going to judge a player better or worse by Batting Average, Gap Power, Defense, Power etc... this is the safest stat to use despite it being inconsistent... The Top 10 WAR players in 2011

Matt Kemp - 6th Round
Jose Bautista - 20th Round
Ryan Braun - 1st (#5 overall)
Jacoby Ellsbury - 1st (#23 overall)
Miguel Cabrera (Venezuelean Free Agent)
Adrian Gonzalaez - 1st (#1 overall)
Dustin Pedroia - 2nd Round
Joey Votto - 2nd Round
Evan Longoria - 1st (3rd Overall)
Pablo Sandoval - (Venezuelean Free Agent)

Pretty much all over the place. Out of 10, there's only 3 Top 5 picks in there. The Pirates are going to have to get as much out of a later 1st round pick and 2nd round pick as is expected out of a Top 5 or so pick.

[emjayinTN]

How are you getting 100K fans would equal $3.5 million? The Pirates average ticket price is around the $15-17 mark. you're talking about $1.6 million. To get to that $80 million mark we'd have to increase tickets and then draw in the 3 million per year category like Milwaukee. We've never come close to 3 million per year

Kipper: I am using the figures put forth by Forbes a few years ago regarding the worth of teams and how much each fan through the turnstiles is worth to that particular team. At the time, it was $30 per fan - I am figuring those numbers increased naturally from inflation and will rise at an increased rate with price increases in the tickets. Therefore, I figured last year's increase in attendance was worth close to $10 mil and then figuring for increased ticket prices, if the Pirates increase by 300,000 per year, a conservative estimate will be $30 mil over a 3 year period - I figure $31.5 mil over 3 years would be closer. I think the 300,000 increase in the next two years is possible, getting us to 2.3 mil fans in 2012 and 2.6 mil fans in 2013. Those are realistic if the Pirates start to sign some existing players (building a solid foundation), and add a key player or two. Also, within the next two years we should add a 5 Tool OF in Starling Marte, and the possibility of increased quality of SP's.

I think the Pirates can get to 2.6 mil fans, but taking them to 3 mil will be up to the success of the team, and, unfortunately, the weather. The average number of fans in April and early May has always been low, and a team like the Brewers does not ever need to worry about the weather because of the roof. I heard some comments about that on MLB TV. The comments were the Brewers draw from such a large area, that fans have to plan well ahead to attend - with the roof they never have to gamble that a game or a few games will be postponed.

[exNCite]

Kipper: I am using the figures put forth by Forbes a few years ago regarding the worth of teams and how much each fan through the turnstiles is worth to that particular team. At the time, it was $30 per fan - I am figuring those numbers increased naturally from inflation and will rise at an increased rate with price increases in the tickets. Therefore, I figured last year's increase in attendance was worth close to $10 mil and then figuring for increased ticket prices, if the Pirates increase by 300,000 per year, a conservative estimate will be $30 mil over a 3 year period - I figure $31.5 mil over 3 years would be closer. I think the 300,000 increase in the next two years is possible, getting us to 2.3 mil fans in 2012 and 2.6 mil fans in 2013. Those are realistic if the Pirates start to sign some existing players (building a solid foundation), and add a key player or two. Also, within the next two years we should add a 5 Tool OF in Starling Marte, and the possibility of increased quality of SP's.

I think the Pirates can get to 2.6 mil fans, but taking them to 3 mil will be up to the success of the team, and, unfortunately, the weather. The average number of fans in April and early May has always been low, and a team like the Brewers does not ever need to worry about the weather because of the roof. I heard some comments about that on MLB TV. The comments were the Brewers draw from such a large area, that fans have to plan well ahead to attend - with the roof they never have to gamble that a game or a few games will be postponed.

The Pirates have NEVER drawn 2.6 million fans let alone 3 million. The highest was 2.4 mil when PNC opened. One problem you forget is the competition they face. Pens most likely go deep into the playoffs which potentially lasts into June. Then you have the Steelers starting up in August/September. There is only so mush of a fan base you can draw on in the PGH market which makes it tough to get to the numbers you are suggesting.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/te...T/attend.shtml

[carney2]

So, what are you saying? We have two possible outcomes:

1. MLB implements a hard salary cap.

or

2. We continue our allegiance when this franchise becomes the Mexico City Piratas.

A close reading of this thread says that there is no possible third outcome.