Morning Links: Huntington on Harper

[jnn123]

He seems to be dealing with it all pretty well too.

There was a point early on where he gave some fairly ridiculous quotes to the media. His advisors/coaches pretty wisely just shut him down ont he talking front and told him to focus on the baseball and they'd handle the other things. At least he seems to be listening.

[Kipper]

You and I are a little different--although I would not say one approach is better than another, you might LOL.

I dont care what Keith Law says...I do think that Ranaudo will become one of the best 3-4 players at the top of the draft and the Pirates should draft one of them...and b/c I like what he brings and I think we need a dominant #1 for the future I CHOOSE to say we should draft him. I do not always look at what teams WILL do, but I think for myself and say what they SHOULD do...in some ways it puts me more out on the line, but oh well...I am ok with that.

...and that's cool. I respect that... now... i won't respect you whining after the draft that the Pirates didn't pick your favorite player. I'll likely try to reach through my PC and try to ***** slap you a few times. you choose to take the route for your decision you also should know that by doing so there's a great chance the results will not be favorable. Basically accept rejection

I think that the Pirates COULD have spent MORE on the draft last year...and could have drafted a legitimate (to me) prospect #4 last year and STILL signed who else they signed. I am OK that you disagree.

I don't think MLB was going to let them spend more or much more. MLB IMO purposely dragged out the process on a couple of guys the Pirates were going above slot on that they lost out on in the end. We "could've" spent more but from what I've read MLB decided to drag out an approval process or something that had the players turn (I cannot remember where I frickin saw or heard this or I'd post it).

I think you could be correct that NH will go with a bat and draft value pitchers later in the draft...but that is not the way I would go, nor do I think that is the way we SHOULD go. I have no influence in the matter, but I DO have informed opinions and I voice those opinions. Sometimes I am right, sometimes I am wrong (I've obviously had more experience with the NFL draft and have had more "success" in that realm).

Right or wrong is the incorrect way to look at it IMO and I personally believe that far too many fans regarding drafts want so badly to be correct that they miss the entire picture. The entire picture would be making the team better in the end. Not everything is going to be exactly the way we personally want it to be, but is "it" still good? That is really what is important. I'm not a draft guru, you aren't a draft guru... our opinions aren't right or wrong with this stuff, it's subjective thought but in the end the big concern is was some good talent added and are we a better Organization afterward and a far deeper one talent wise?

If the answer is yes, then great. Down the road we'll evaluate those personal picks and see how it all weighs out in the end i'll give you some credit. You were big on Gordon Beckham and you were big on Ackley far earlier than anyone else... you might very well know what the hell you're talking about

We do view the draft differently. I mean in general, I don't have personal attachments to players. I never have. Never had a favorite player in any sport growing up or anything like that.. just favorite teams. When it comes to the draft I always gravitate to what the guy making the ultimate decisions is going to do. It helps prepare me for what will happen rather than lock in a fantasy and be disappointed in the end. I do this with trades as well. So out viewpoints will be different and in some cases completely different

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[Kipper]

This doesn't have anything to do with Huntington's comments, but I just saw that Harper is currently playing in a wooden bat conference. It's an interesting choice. Probably deflates his stats this year, but also gives scouts a better idea of what he can do with the wood.

I came across that yesterday and completely forgot all about it.

That's a really bold move for Harper going to a wooden bat but then again I'd like to think that scouts are smart enough to know he's using a wooden bat and would possibly be looking at his plate presence, swing, body movement, contact... all 100 things that goes into a specific AB.

[Steelreign]

Personally, I think the Pirates need to avoid Harper like the plague. I am of the opinion that position players need to be prominent in our draft this year, but they need to be of the more polished variety. It seems too many people tied any future success of the Pirates to the signing of Sano and now they are transferring that line of thinking to Harper. Harper has a much better chance of being a bust than he does of being a stud and the Pirates cannot afford a mistake as costly as that. I much prefer that that kind of money be spread out over 8 or 9 prospects.

[Daskid]

Personally, I think the Pirates need to avoid Harper like the plague. I am of the opinion that position players need to be prominent in our draft this year, but they need to be of the more polished variety. It seems too many people tied any future success of the Pirates to the signing of Sano and now they are transferring that line of thinking to Harper. Harper has a much better chance of being a bust than he does of being a stud and the Pirates cannot afford a mistake as costly as that. I much prefer that that kind of money be spread out over 8 or 9 prospects.

You might be right, but I think it's early to say that. He might kill the ball between now and draft day and give every indication of being the real deal. That's still a big gamble on a kid so young, but I rather see them squander $6 million on a chance like that than squander $20M on a bad free agent contract. If they're going to take chances with money, the draft is the place to do it.

[Kipper]

You might be right, but I think it's early to say that. He might kill the ball between now and draft day and give every indication of being the real deal. That's still a big gamble on a kid so young, but I rather see them squander $6 million on a chance like that than squander $20M on a bad free agent contract. If they're going to take chances with money, the draft is the place to do it.

The biggest issue I see with Harper is going to be Control. There's no way in hell Scott Boras is accepting anything less than an MLB contract and for a HS guy, personally that's not worth it cause that kills the control you have that player for.

I mean, I can see it now, the Pirates draft Harper with the intent on paying him BUT perhaps it doesn't happen. The usual Nutting whiners will blame it on the money, but I would guarantee it would be about the MLB contract and therein likes another huge risk outside of this kid possibly being overhyped right now

[Daskid]

The biggest issue I see with Harper is going to be Control. There's no way in hell Scott Boras is accepting anything less than an MLB contract and for a HS guy, personally that's not worth it cause that kills the control you have that player for.

Major league contacts to draftees don't affect control. The control clock is based on major league playing time (Alvarez has had a major league contract, but the Pirates still have the full 6 years of control with him). A major league contract only means the team is forced to use a 40 man roster spot on that player. They lose roster flexibility.

I mean, I can see it now, the Pirates draft Harper with the intent on paying him BUT perhaps it doesn't happen. The usual Nutting whiners will blame it on the money, but I would guarantee it would be about the MLB contract and therein likes another huge risk outside of this kid possibly being overhyped right now

I agree the risk is huge. I'm not saying the Pirates should draft him, I'm just saying they shouldn't rule it out at this point. Every draft pick has risk. It is just a matter of assessing it. On draft day, they'll have a much more developed scouting report and a much better idea of his signing demands. It's way too early to properly assess that risk now. To say at this juncture that the Pirates should avoid him like the plague, for any reason, is premature.

[Kipper]

Major league contacts to draftees don't affect control. The control clock is based on major league playing time (Alvarez has had a major league contract, but the Pirates still have the full 6 years of control with him). A major league contract only means the team is forced to use a 40 man roster spot on that player. They lose roster flexibility.


I agree the risk is huge. I'm not saying the Pirates should draft him, I'm just saying they shouldn't rule it out at this point. Every draft pick has risk. It is just a matter of assessing it. On draft day, they'll have a much more developed scouting report and a much better idea of his signing demands. It's way too early to properly assess that risk now. To say at this juncture that the Pirates should avoid him like the plague, for any reason, is premature.

Thanks for the clarification on the Major League contract.

The other thing with Harper is the clout. him choosing Juco ball pretty much has everyone convinced he is desperate to sign in the draft. Boras is likely to do his usual bluff but Harper isn't going to make as much as Strasburg or in the ball park of whatever ridiculous sum Boras claims Harper for. Most analysts are saying around the $9 million range. Less than Strasburg and more or in the range of Ackley last year IF he goes first round. If he goes 2nd round, I've read speculation that it'll be less than Ackley last season.

At that price it would be worth the consideration. I don't know if Harper is going to gain a ton more by holding out if he doesn't get a specific amount and he would only have 1 more season since it's likely some sort of slotting system will be in place for the 2012 draft...

It's pretty interesting.

(not really Harper related) BUT, what does anyone know about Anthony Rendon? I read that some people at Baseball America are predicting as of now of course that Rendon could go #1. http://riceowls.cstv.com/sports/m-ba...anthony00.html

[indybucfan]

Thanks for the clarification on the Major League contract.

The other thing with Harper is the clout. him choosing Juco ball pretty much has everyone convinced he is desperate to sign in the draft. Boras is likely to do his usual bluff but Harper isn't going to make as much as Strasburg or in the ball park of whatever ridiculous sum Boras claims Harper for. Most analysts are saying around the $9 million range. Less than Strasburg and more or in the range of Ackley last year IF he goes first round. If he goes 2nd round, I've read speculation that it'll be less than Ackley last season.

At that price it would be worth the consideration. I don't know if Harper is going to gain a ton more by holding out if he doesn't get a specific amount and he would only have 1 more season since it's likely some sort of slotting system will be in place for the 2012 draft...

It's pretty interesting.

(not really Harper related) BUT, what does anyone know about Anthony Rendon? I read that some people at Baseball America are predicting as of now of course that Rendon could go #1. http://riceowls.cstv.com/sports/m-ba...anthony00.html

The place where the major league contract affects a high school player, is you have to place them on the 40 man roster right off the bat. You use an option right off the bat in sending them down to the minors. I believe you get three options for a player. By the time this kid is 20 or 21, he's out of options. Boras knows this and he uses that to get the clock started early. I worry more about HS pitchers than hitters on major league contracts, but truth be told, I'd just as soon not give a major league contract to a HS kid or Latin American kid.

A couple of examples off the top of my head that received major league deals were Todd Van Poppel and Willie Mo Pena. Had they received the minor league time each one needed, their careers may have turned out much differently.

For me, Bryce Harper demanding a major league contract would be a deal breaker, no matter the cost. He stated in the SI piece that his goal was to be in the majors by 19. If he's that good, his play will get him to the majors. He doesn't need a guarantee because of his contract.

[PittFaninVa]

[HIGH-LIGHT]The biggest issue I see with Harper is going to be Control.[/HIGH-LIGHT] There's no way in hell Scott Boras is accepting anything less than an MLB contract and for a HS guy, personally that's not worth it cause that kills the control you have that player for.

I mean, I can see it now, the Pirates draft Harper with the intent on paying him BUT perhaps it doesn't happen. The usual Nutting whiners will blame it on the money, but I would guarantee it would be about the MLB contract and therein likes another huge risk outside of this kid possibly being overhyped right now

Kipper you are correct.....

Harper without a ML contract the Pirates could conceivably control him for 13 years.

Harper with a ML contract the Pirates could only control him for 9 years.

If Harper is as good as advertized he should be on the ML team within 3 years so a ML contract shouldn't be a problem just like with Alvarez.

[wiggles]

after reading about his first few Juco games(2 for 6), the perception of him is depleting. He does well against weak pitchers and looks bad against good pitching.

He is only a kid, it would be a big gamble to take him #1 or #10 if he can't produce at the level he is currently at, reguardless of "tools"

[Daskid]

Kipper you are correct.....

Harper without a ML contract the Pirates could conceivably control him for 13 years.

Harper with a ML contract the Pirates could only control him for 9 years.

If Harper is as good as advertized he should be on the ML team within 3 years so a ML contract shouldn't be a problem just like with Alvarez.

PFV, can you explain the nature of the difference between 9 and 13? I'm obviously not aware.

[indybucfan]

PFV, can you explain the nature of the difference between 9 and 13? I'm obviously not aware.

The difference is, when a player signs a standard contract, you have 4 or 5 years before you start using options to send them down to the minors. An 18 year old high school kid signs a standard contract. Say he makes the majors when he's 24. That's six years of minor league time. In the standard contract, you were able to keep him in the minors this long because you weren't using up his options in his early years while he develops. Now say you sign the 18 year old to a major league contract. You use an option each year you send him to the minors, including the year he was drafted. By the time the kid is 21, he is out of options and must be kept on the major league roster or exposed to waivers. The additional 4 years is because of the extra years where you don't have to use an option to send him to the minors.

Once each player makes the majors, you have generally 6 years (3 non arbitration years and 3 arbitration years) before he becomes a free agent. With a major league contract, that free agent year comes at age 27 instead of possibly 31 with a standard contract.

I'm sure pfv can give you a more condensed explanation, but in a nutshell, the longer you can wait to place a player on the 40 man roster, the better off you are long term.

[Daskid]

The difference is, when a player signs a standard contract, you have 4 or 5 years before you start using options to send them down to the minors. An 18 year old high school kid signs a standard contract. Say he makes the majors when he's 24. That's six years of minor league time. In the standard contract, you were able to keep him in the minors this long because you weren't using up his options in his early years while he develops. Now say you sign the 18 year old to a major league contract. You use an option each year you send him to the minors, including the year he was drafted. By the time the kid is 21, he is out of options and must be kept on the major league roster or exposed to waivers. The additional 4 years is because of the extra years where you don't have to use an option to send him to the minors.

Once each player makes the majors, you have generally 6 years (3 non arbitration years and 3 arbitration years) before he becomes a free agent. With a major league contract, that free agent year comes at age 27 instead of possibly 31 with a standard contract.

I'm sure pfv can give you a more condensed explanation, but in a nutshell, the longer you can wait to place a player on the 40 man roster, the better off you are long term.

Thanks, Indy. You cleared it up for me. I wasn't thinking about spending the option at the beginning of every year.

Sorry for the bad info, Kip.

[PittFaninVa]

The difference is, when a player signs a standard contract, you have 4 or 5 years before you start using options to send them down to the minors. An 18 year old high school kid signs a standard contract. Say he makes the majors when he's 24. That's six years of minor league time. In the standard contract, you were able to keep him in the minors this long because you weren't using up his options in his early years while he develops. Now say you sign the 18 year old to a major league contract. You use an option each year you send him to the minors, including the year he was drafted. By the time the kid is 21, he is out of options and must be kept on the major league roster or exposed to waivers. The additional 4 years is because of the extra years where you don't have to use an option to send him to the minors.

Once each player makes the majors, you have generally 6 years (3 non arbitration years and 3 arbitration years) before he becomes a free agent. With a major league contract, that free agent year comes at age 27 instead of possibly 31 with a standard contract.

I'm sure pfv can give you a more condensed explanation, but in a nutshell, the longer you can wait to place a player on the 40 man roster, the better off you are long term.

Indy you gave a pretty good explanation I will leave it at that unless someone wants a more detailed one.

My point was that a ML contract shouldn't be a problem though. Harper is supposed to be the next "Labron". If that is the case he won't need those extra years in the minors. His 3 option years at the very most should be enough time to season him in the minors. If that isn't the case he isn't worth picking at #2.

The only problem with picking Harper in general is that he could possibly can become a FA in his early to mid twenties, way before he hits his prime so the Pirates are going to have to make a tough decision on whether to keep a very young superstar not even in his prime and pay him mega bucks or show him the door.